Comparison of climate change in past versus future as simulated by FIO-ESM model under RCP based emission scenarios at different locations in Punjab
Jatinder Kaur, Prabhjyot-Kaur
The projected data on temperature and rainfall derived from FIO-ESM model based on four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios was analyzed on annual and seasonal (kharif: May-October and rabi: November-April) basis for seven different locations of Punjab. In Punjab amongst different locations, maximum temperature is projected to rise from 29.8-31.3 oC (baseline period) to 30.1-31.1oC (RCP 2.6), 30.2-31.2oC (RCP 4.5), 30.3-31.3oC (RCP 6.0) and 30.4-31.4oC (RCP 8.5) during mid-century (2020-2049) and to 29.7-30.8oC (RCP 2.6), 30.6-31.7oC (RCP 4.5), 31.3-32.3oC (RCP 6.0) and 33.0-34.0oC (RCP 8.5) during end-century (2066-2095). Similarly, minimum temperature is projected to rise from 15.5-20.3oC (baseline period) to 17.0-18.5oC (RCP 2.6), 17.4-18.8oC (RCP 4.5), 17.2-18.7oC (RCP 6.0) and 17.5-19.0oC (RCP 8.5) during mid-century (2020-2049) and to 16.6-18.1oC (RCP 2.6), 17.6- 19.1oC (RCP 4.5), 18.0-19.5oC (RCP 6.0) and 19.7-21.3oC (RCP 8.5) during end- century (2066-2095). The rainfall is not only projected to decrease in different locations but its distribution may become highly variable as indicated by high values of standard deviation and coefficient of variation.