International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences

International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences


International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences
International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences
2021, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Comparison of climate change in past versus future as simulated by FIO-ESM model under RCP based emission scenarios at different locations in Punjab

Jatinder Kaur, Prabhjyot-Kaur

The projected data on temperature and rainfall derived from FIO-ESM model based on four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios was analyzed on annual and seasonal (kharif: May-October and rabi: November-April) basis for seven different locations of Punjab. In Punjab amongst different locations, maximum temperature is projected to rise from 29.8-31.3 oC (baseline period) to 30.1-31.1oC (RCP 2.6), 30.2-31.2oC (RCP 4.5), 30.3-31.3oC (RCP 6.0) and 30.4-31.4oC (RCP 8.5) during mid-century (2020-2049) and to 29.7-30.8oC (RCP 2.6), 30.6-31.7oC (RCP 4.5), 31.3-32.3oC (RCP 6.0) and 33.0-34.0oC (RCP 8.5) during end-century (2066-2095). Similarly, minimum temperature is projected to rise from 15.5-20.3oC (baseline period) to 17.0-18.5oC (RCP 2.6), 17.4-18.8oC (RCP 4.5), 17.2-18.7oC (RCP 6.0) and 17.5-19.0oC (RCP 8.5) during mid-century (2020-2049) and to 16.6-18.1oC (RCP 2.6), 17.6- 19.1oC (RCP 4.5), 18.0-19.5oC (RCP 6.0) and 19.7-21.3oC (RCP 8.5) during end- century (2066-2095). The rainfall is not only projected to decrease in different locations but its distribution may become highly variable as indicated by high values of standard deviation and coefficient of variation.
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